SpaceX Faces More Lockup-Driven Volatility as 320 Million Shares Unlock August 20

SpaceX's Record IPO Meets Its First Lockup Calendar

SpaceX is moving through the first serious test of its public-market float, and the biggest factor is not an earnings report or a new launch. It is the IPO's lockup calendar. Ed Elson, a research analyst and co-host of 'Prof G Markets,' told Kara Swisher's 'On' podcast that after the first major lockup expiration on August 6 did not trigger the sell-off some investors had feared, SpaceX still has seven more rounds of shares scheduled to become eligible for trading by the end of the year.

Lockup agreements prevent insiders and early investors from selling for a set period after an initial public offering. When they expire, the pool of shares that can be sold expands. If demand does not absorb the extra supply, the share price can fall. More than 900 million SpaceX shares became eligible for sale on August 6. Instead of falling, the stock rose 6.1% that day and jumped almost 16% in the next session.

Elson attributed part of that resilience to short sellers closing positions, which can create temporary buying demand. He still expects 'a lot of selling pressure' as early backers convert long-held paper gains into spending on homes, boats or even aircraft. The next scheduled test is August 20, when about 320 million more shares are expected to become eligible to trade.

SpaceX raised about $85.7 billion in June in the largest IPO on record, listing on Nasdaq. Shares were priced at $135, climbed to $225.64 during the first week, and closed Thursday at $141.29, just above the IPO price and roughly 30% below the June 16 closing high. That gap between the early high and the current price is one reason the successive lockup expirations are being watched closely.

Why Lockup Expirations Have Not Sunk SpaceX Stock Yet

The Supply Overhang Is a Calendar, Not a One-Day Event

The core risk Elson is describing is a series of liquidity events rather than a single cliff. More than 900 million shares became eligible on August 6, another roughly 320 million are expected on August 20, and seven more rounds are scheduled by year-end. Each date raises the possible supply of stock without any guarantee that new buyers will appear in equal size.

Why the August 6 Expiration Did Not Cause a Sell-Off

A lockup expiration makes shares eligible for sale; it does not force owners to sell. The August 6 price action — a 6.1% rise followed by a nearly 16% gain — suggests either selling was limited or buying was strong enough to absorb it. Elson points to short covering as a contributor: short sellers closing positions are buyers in the market, which can temporarily support the share price around an event that would otherwise add supply.

The August 20 Test and Early Investors' Incentives

The next date to watch is August 20, when about 320 million shares are expected to become tradable. The number is smaller than the August tranche, but the psychology could matter more after the stock closed Thursday at $141.29, only slightly above the $135 IPO price. Early investors who acquired shares in much lower private funding rounds are sitting on large gains, and Elson's view is that the temptation to turn those paper gains into tangible assets could eventually outweigh the decision to keep holding.

What Market Participants Should Track as SpaceX Unlocks Continue

Investors and market watchers tracking SpaceX can focus on a few specific dates and price signals rather than treating volatility as noise.

• August 20 is the next observable test. About 320 million shares are expected to become eligible for trading, following the 900 million-plus shares unlocked on August 6. Price and volume around that date will show whether demand is absorbing the new supply.
• Do not read the August 6 rise as proof that lockup selling is harmless. The stock gained 6.1% on the expiration day and almost 16% in the following session, but Elson partly credits short covering, which can offset selling pressure temporarily.
• Expect repeated volatility rather than a single event. Seven more unlock rounds are scheduled by year-end, so future price swings may cluster around those expiration dates.
• Watch how shares respond after each unlock, not just on the day. The stock remains just above its $135 IPO price and about 30% below its June 16 closing high, so follow-through in the days after August 20 will be more informative than the first print.