US Futures Steady as Cooling Producer Prices Bolster Fed-Hold Bets

US Futures Steady and the Data That Moved Them

US stock futures are trading broadly sideways following recent gains, as a softer producer price report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.

Producer prices were flat in July compared with June and rose 4.7% year on year, down from 5.5% in June. At the same time, initial jobless claims edged up to 209,000. The combination suggests price pressures are easing, but a still-tight labour market argues against any rapid policy loosening.

The session's focus turns to the consumer confidence release. In corporate news, Applied Materials guided for roughly $10.25 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and said it would expand production capacity to meet high AI demand, yet the stock fell more than 5% after hours because the outlook did not exceed already elevated market expectations. Separately, SanDisk offered a strong multi-year outlook at its investor day, while speculation that Silver Lake could take Workday private lifted the broader software sector.

Technical positioning remains cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average held support at 53,641 points on the previous session, but traders note the downside risk has not declined. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 levels are also being watched closely near recent record highs.

Why Cooling PPI, AI Guidance and Deal Talk Are Driving the Tape

Why Cooling Producer Prices Point to a Fed Hold

The monthly stagnation in producer prices and the slowdown in the annual rate from 5.5% to 4.7% reduce the case for another rate increase. But the 209,000 initial jobless claims figure remains low by historical standards. In this source's reading, that mix supports the market's base case: no rate cut urgency and no hike in September.

Applied Materials: Strong Guidance, Punished Expectations

Applied Materials said it expects fourth-quarter revenue around $10.25 billion and plans to expand capacity for AI-related demand. The market still sent the shares down more than 5% after hours. The interpretation is that the guidance was solid but not enough to clear the very high bar set by the stock's prior gains and the boom in AI-related capital expenditure expectations.

Workday and the Software Sector's Private-Equity Spark

Reports that Silver Lake is exploring a buyout of Workday lifted sentiment across the software sector. Deal speculation can raise valuations for comparable companies by establishing a potential private-market benchmark, though this remains an unconfirmed scenario rather than a completed transaction.

The Dow's Support Test

The Dow defended the 53,641 support level, preventing a slide toward 53,289. The analysis warns that another selling wave toward 52,750 would become more likely unless the index breaks above 54,049 and then 54,478. These levels are trading signals, not forecasts of a recession or a policy shift.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Near Record Levels

The S&P 500 cleared its previous record near 7,793 and reached 7,815 before pulling back. A failure to hold above 7,767 could open a move toward 7,717 and 7,698. The Nasdaq 100 broke above a triangle pattern and is now watched near 30,334; above that, 30,762 is the next target, while a drop below 29,946 would mark a bearish signal.

The Levels and Data Points Market Participants Are Trading

• Consumer confidence is the day's main macro release after producer prices slowed to 4.7% and jobless claims reached 209,000; a weak reading would challenge the soft-landing interpretation, while a firm reading would support the current Fed-hold narrative.
• Applied Materials' post-market decline despite a $10.25 billion revenue guide shows AI-linked valuations are priced for perfection; whether buyers emerge in regular trading will show if the selloff was just an expectations reset.
• The SanDisk investor-day outlook and Silver Lake-Workday speculation keep semiconductor and software names in play; neither the Workday deal nor SanDisk's long-term targets are confirmed, so treat both as sentiment drivers rather than completed events.
• On the Dow, 54,049 is the first upside trigger; failure to break above it keeps the 53,641-to-53,289 support zone in focus. On the S&P 500, 7,767 is the short-term line that signals a deeper correction if lost.