Super El Niño May Rival 1997-98 Record, China Warned of Severe Floods Next Year

A Super El Niño Unfolding and What It Means for China

A developing El Niño in the equatorial Pacific now rivals the record 1997-98 event in intensity, according to Jiang Hua, the chief El Niño forecaster at China’s National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center. In an interview with Global Times, Jiang explained that sea surface temperatures across a vast area of the central and eastern tropical Pacific have been abnormally warm for months, meeting the duration and scale needed to disrupt global atmospheric circulation. The phenomenon, often called a “super El Niño”, threatens to bring extreme weather — including devastating floods — to China’s most populous regions.

Jiang described the warm waters as a “supercharged boiler” that alters the Pacific’s Walker circulation, shifting rainfall patterns and triggering droughts in some areas while saturating others. This year, the disturbance is already manifesting in southern China as intense downpours, heatwaves and an unusual typhoon pattern. Unlike many past events, the current warming is driven primarily by subsurface oceanic processes: warm water from the North and South Pacific and the Indian Ocean converged beneath the surface, accelerating the development beyond early forecasts.

The forecaster stressed that the most severe impacts for China typically arrive in the year after the event peaks, meaning 2027 could be far more dangerous. History shows that the catastrophic Yangtze River floods of 1998 and 2016 both occurred after super El Niños. This time, the combination of record warm global temperatures — 2024 exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels — and the massive accumulation of oceanic heat raises the odds of a similarly devastating flood season, particularly for the middle and lower Yangtze basin.

How This El Niño Compares to Past Events and Why Next Year Is Key

Why This El Niño Rivals 1997-98

Jiang’s team compared the intensity not just by sea surface temperature but by subsurface heat content, a key metric of stored energy. Both surface and subsurface anomalies are now comparable to the benchmark 1997-98 event, and the event has already surpassed the 2015-16 super El Niño. The unusual driver is critical: in 1997-98, powerful westerly wind bursts dominated, whereas this year, “oceanic internal processes” — physical waves and currents — orchestrated a multi-basin convergence of warm water. This subsurface “express lane” allowed the event to intensify rapidly once the initial anomalies were spotted in March.

Global Warming’s Fingerprints

Jiang cited the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which found that extreme El Niño events become markedly more frequent once global average temperatures rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. With 2024 hitting 1.55°C and 2025 still above 1.42°C, the world has already crossed that threshold. “Following the current warming trajectory, extreme El Niños will appear more and more often,” she said. This suggests that what was once a once-in-a-century event is becoming a recurring challenge for China and the globe.

The Warning for Next Year’s Flood Season

The most urgent message from the interview is the elevated flood risk in 2027. Historical patterns show that during the decay phase of a super El Niño, the rain belt tends to stall over the Yangtze River basin, causing prolonged and intense precipitation. Both the catastrophic 1998 floods, which killed thousands and displaced millions, and the 2016 summer floods followed this script. Jiang also cautioned that northeast China’s Songhua River basin could see above-average rainfall, while the Pearl River region should brace for an unusually wet spring. The heavy runoff would drastically alter coastal salinity, threatening fisheries and marine ecosystems.

Forecasting Capabilities and Limits

China began operational El Niño monitoring in 1996 and now uses a blend of expert judgment and numerical models enhanced by artificial intelligence. For a six-month lead time, forecast skill scores routinely exceed 0.8, but Jiang acknowledged a persistent “spring predictability barrier”: the ocean-atmosphere system is inherently unstable from March through May, reducing model accuracy. China also relies heavily on observation buoys deployed mainly by the US and Japan, a gap in domestic infrastructure that can limit real-time data. Still, Jiang expressed confidence in the scientific capability, describing each forecast as “an exploration to find certainty in a chaotic system.”

Preparing for the Impacts: Practical Steps for People and Industries

• Heed weather warnings and avoid risk zones: Jiang urged the public not to disregard alerts. Even if a forecast says “moderate rain,” localized downpours can develop suddenly. Avoid mountainous areas, river valleys and low-lying ground during heavy rain.
• Farmers should prepare for both flood and drought: Based on historical patterns and current indicators, drainage infrastructure must be ready in flood-prone regions, while drought-resistant crop varieties and irrigation planning are essential where precipitation deficits may appear. Adjust planting schedules to account for a wetter spring next year in southern China.
• Fisheries must monitor sea temperature and red tide alerts: Abnormally warm South China Sea waters, expected to persist into spring 2027, raise the risk of red tides and hypoxia. Operators should avoid peak risk periods and areas flagged by marine forecasts.
• Shipping lines need dynamic route planning: The unusual typhoon pattern, with storms forming farther east and intensifying over a warm ocean, increases the chance of super typhoons. Carriers should factor in more frequent and stronger storms when scheduling voyages in the Western Pacific.
• Disaster agencies and local governments: The Yangtze and Pearl river basins likely need enhanced flood-control coordination, early-warning systems for flash floods, and stockpiling of relief supplies well ahead of next summer.