What a Franklin Templeton CEE Sales Director Tells a 40-Year-Old to Hold in a War-Risk Era

Against the backdrop of the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, Kamil Mikołajczak, director of sales for Central and Eastern Europe at Franklin Templeton, has a blunt message for middle-class Polish savers: residential property is for living in, not for building an investment strategy, and the instinct to flee equities after a Middle East escalation is usually costly.

In an interview with Forbes, he pointed to a striking pattern in Polish fund flows: bond funds attracted more than PLN 40 billion last year, while stock funds took in only a few hundred million. That home bias and aversion to volatility, he argued, feels safe but means investors forgo the longer-term risk premium that equities can provide.

For a 40-year-old with a multi-year horizon, his framework starts with an old rule of thumb — equities equal to 100 minus age — and builds outward. Alongside U.S. and emerging-market stocks, he advocates replacing the classic 60/40 stock-and-bond split with a 50/30/20 mix that adds about 20% to alternative assets such as private equity, private debt or infrastructure, though Polish entry thresholds usually start around PLN 200,000.

Gold has done its classic safe-haven job in the current shock, but he cautions against chasing last year's exceptional returns, including the 180% gain in Franklin Templeton's precious-metals fund. Bitcoin, he says, remains a high-volatility asset without cash-flow fundamentals, and its four-year cycle is still the key to understanding the price.

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Decoding the Equity, Gold, Property and Bitcoin Case Behind the Headlines

Why Polish savers keep buying bonds while the equity market broadens

The flow figures Mikołajczak cites — more than PLN 40 billion into bond funds versus a few hundred million into equity funds — reflect a young capital market and a deep-seated home bias. He sees a generational shift underway: younger investors are more comfortable with ETFs, global exposure and platforms, which may gradually rebalance Polish household savings toward equities. The portfolio implication is not to abandon safety, but to make it time-sensitive: money needed within six months belongs in short-term instruments; money with a longer horizon belongs in a strategic stock-and-bond allocation.

Why the Iran shock looks like a rotation, not the end of the U.S. bull market

Mikołajczak argues that selling purely because of a geopolitical headline is emotional, not strategic. He notes that the VIX had been climbing for weeks and the Nasdaq had already weakened before the attack, while capital rotated from mega-cap technology toward value, energy, financials and industrial names. Broad U.S. economic data and company earnings remain strong, and with the Federal Reserve still expected to cut rates twice this year, he expects the S&P 500 to end 2026 in the 7,000–7,400 range. The key risk to watch is a sustained energy supply shock — which the oil market, in his view, is not pricing today.

Real estate, alternatives and gold: the hard numbers

The interview is most useful where it distinguishes an asset's role from its romance. Net rental yields on Polish residential property are typically in the single digits, comparable to bonds or a good deposit, while ownership brings management work and low liquidity; using a mortgage magnifies the gap between expectations and reality. Alternatives such as private equity and infrastructure can improve historical risk-adjusted returns, but the usual individual entry point in Poland remains high. Gold makes sense as a diversifier, though buying after a spike is statistically a weak entry; silver is far more volatile because of its industrial and copper-byproduct dynamics.

Bitcoin and the halving calendar

On bitcoin, Mikołajczak is explicit: it has no dividend, no coupon and no fundamental cash-flow anchor, and it moves in four-year cycles around halvings. With the next halving around April 2028, he sees the current phase as one of natural downward tendency following prior peaks — and points out that historical declines exceeded 80%, while the current drawdown is only slightly above 50%. That is an argument for sizing, not necessarily zero exposure, for an investor who genuinely understands the volatility.

Portfolio Moves a Middle-Class 40-Something Can Act On

  • Match the tool to the date: For money you'll need within roughly six months — a flat purchase or university fees — use short-term instruments, not equities.
  • Start with the 100-minus-age rule: A 40-year-old with a long horizon can begin portfolio planning around roughly 60% equities, split between U.S. and emerging markets.
  • Don't let the Iran headline sell the portfolio: Before the attack, volatility and Nasdaq weakness were already visible; the interview frames this as a fourth-year bull market rotation, not a structural bear turn.
  • Rethink the investment apartment: Rental yields are usually single-digit and the asset is illiquid; property is better treated as housing, especially if buying with debt.
  • Use alternatives only if the entry point fits: Private equity, private debt or infrastructure can substitute bonds, but in Poland the practical access level often starts at about PLN 200,000; otherwise conventional stock and bond funds remain the accessible core.
  • Treat gold as insurance, not a repeatable jackpot: Last year's 180% precious-metals fund return is not a normal annual outcome; silver is more volatile and bitcoin remains a cyclical, high-risk asset with the next halving around April 2028.