Why Ethiopia's Tigray Ceasefire Is Unravelling

The International Crisis Group (ICG) is warning that Ethiopia is sliding back toward full-scale war after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and allied armed groups opened a coordinated offensive against the federal government. The escalation follows a week of large-scale ground fighting in which TPLF forces seized three previously federal-controlled airports around Mekelle and retook the northern towns of Axum and Shire, replacing federal police without resistance. Addis Ababa has cancelled all flights into Tigray, effectively cutting the region off from routine air access.

The fighting is not confined to Tigray. ICG researchers say assaults are concentrated along two northern fronts: near the Amhara region's border with Southern Tigray, where Tigrayan forces and the Amhara Fano militia attacked federal positions on 23 September, and on the Tigray-Afar boundary, where the TPLF struck the government-backed Tigray Peace Forces. The group places primary responsibility on the TPLF, which it says joined with other rebel organisations in a new alliance whose declared goal is to overthrow Ethiopia's government.

The current offensive follows the fragile peace cemented by the Pretoria agreement that ended the November 2020 to November 2022 Tigray war, a conflict that cost hundreds of thousands of lives and produced widespread starvation and sexual violence. That arrangement has been under severe stress for months. In late April and early May, the TPLF retook control of Tigray's regional administration, installed Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president, and launched a new conscription drive. The federal government responded by withholding funding and fuel from the region and conducting occasional drone attacks, but the latest ground offensive marks a much sharper break from the post-war standoff.

Despite the rebel advances, ICG notes skepticism that the opposition alliance can directly threaten Addis Ababa. The decisive question is whether the federal government, whose officials have sent conflicting signals, will pursue a large-scale counteroffensive into Tigray. A full incursion would almost certainly cause mass displacement and casualties, ICG warns, returning northern Ethiopia to a humanitarian emergency.

Inside the TPLF-Led Alliance and Addis Ababa's Military Dilemma

The TPLF's Alliance Has Created a Coordinated Multi-Front Challenge

ICG reads the offensive as the first coordinated military action by the new opposition alliance rather than an isolated TPLF operation. The simultaneous assaults across Amhara and Afar force the federal military to split its response, increasing the chance that some territory changes hands before Addis Ababa can concentrate forces. That is an interpretation: the pattern of attacks supports it, but battlefield information remains incomplete. What is verified is that TPLF forces took airports and towns, and that fighting occurred on two separate fronts on 23 September.

Addis Ababa Is Caught Between Two Strategies

Government sources have sent contradictory signals, ICG says. One senior official described the aim as eliminating the TPLF as a threat; another said the government would prefer to avoid a full-fledged war. This split matters because it likely reflects a real policy debate inside the federal government over whether the cost of retaking Tigray is worth the humanitarian and diplomatic fallout. If the more aggressive position prevails, a large ground war becomes more probable; if the cautious position holds, the government may try to contain the offensive rather than march on Mekelle.

Eritrea's Quiet Reversal Raises the Risk of Interstate War

The ICG assessment points to a dramatic regional realignment: Eritrea, formerly an enemy of the TPLF and an ally of Addis Ababa during parts of the Tigray war, is now described as quietly aligned with the TPLF. The ICG attributes this to Eritrean dissatisfaction with the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which Asmara felt left the TPLF too strong and excluded Eritrea from the final settlement. Addis Ababa, for its part, accuses Asmara of coordinating the opposition alliance. A major escalation could move the fighting toward the Ethiopia-Eritrea border, opening a path to interstate conflict.

The Sudan Border Adds a Second Fuse

ICG also warns that the conflict could merge with Sudan's war, because the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF both have ties to rival belligerents in Sudan. That is not a new Sudan-Ethiopia war by itself, but it is a specific mechanism by which an Ethiopian escalation could draw in external actors. The risk is that two separate civil wars become operationally linked across the shared frontier.

What the ICG Warning Means for Diplomacy and the Horn

  • For African Union mediators: ICG explicitly names former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo, Kenyan President William Ruto and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta as actors who should urgently press both sides into direct talks. The timeline is immediate, because the multi-front offensive is still unfolding.
  • For federal government decision-makers: The single most consequential near-term choice is whether to halt the current offensives or launch a full ground incursion into Tigray to remove the TPLF from Mekelle. That decision, not the rebel advances near Weldiya and Lalibela, will determine whether the conflict escalates into a humanitarian crisis, according to ICG's own assessment.
  • For humanitarian and border agencies: Contingency planning should focus on the corridor linking Mekelle, Axum and Shire, and on Amhara border towns such as Weldiya and Lalibela, where ICG says advances are reported. A federal incursion would 'almost assuredly' cause extensive displacement and mass casualties, making these the immediate exposure points.
  • For outside powers: ICG asks Saudi Arabia and the UAE to pressure their respective regional allies to stop fighting, and says the United States and Europe can play key supporting roles in a return to peace. Those are the named levers in the ICG report rather than generic calls for stability.