Low Turnout Across Three States

Assembly bypolls in Bihar’s Bankipur, Madhya Pradesh’s Datia and Gujarat’s Manjalpur recorded significantly lower voter turnout compared to previous elections, raising questions about voter enthusiasm ahead of the August 3 counting.

In Bankipur, a BJP bastion and one of Bihar’s most urbanised constituencies, only 34.31% of voters cast ballots — down from 41.35% in the 2025 assembly polls, when BJP president Nitin Nabin had defeated RJD’s Rekha Gupta by over 51,000 votes. This time, BJP fielded Neeraj Kumar Sinha, facing Jan Suraaj’s Prashant Kishor and RJD’s Rekha Gupta again. The seat fell vacant after Nabin assumed the party’s national president role.

Datia in Madhya Pradesh reported 71.41% voting, a drop from the 80% turnout in 2023. The bypoll was necessitated by the conviction of Congress MLA Rajendra Bharti, with Congress’ Ghanshyam Singh taking on BJP’s Ashutosh Tiwari. In Manjalpur, Gujarat, turnout plummeted to 37.5%, compared to 63.61% in the 2022 elections; the seat became vacant after the death of sitting BJP MLA Yogeshbhai Patel. The contest is between BJP’s Satish Patel and Congress’ Bikhabhai Rabari.

Decoding the Turnout Numbers

Bankipur: A Pattern of Urban Disengagement

Bankipur has historically seen low polling, but the slide from 41% to 34% suggests deepening apathy. While evening voting picked up slightly, the numbers will worry the BJP, which counts the seat as a stronghold. The presence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj adds an experimental element, but it is unclear whether it mobilised new voters or split the anti‑BJP vote.

Datia: Conviction Aftermath Dilutes Turnout

The nearly 9‑percentage‑point drop in Datia may reflect a vacuum created by the disqualification of a sitting MLA, as well as the routine erosion of intensity in bypolls where the term of the new legislator will be short. The contest remains a straight BJP‑Congress fight in a state where the ruling party’s organisational muscle often decides local outcomes.

Manjalpur: Sympathy or Silence?

The near‑halving of turnout in Manjalpur is striking. Some of it could be attributed to the loss of the incumbent, Yogeshbhai Patel, which may have suppressed traditional BJP supporters. Alternatively, it may indicate an absence of a galvanising issue. Without exit poll data, the actual political signal will only emerge on counting day.