US Grocery Unit Sales Slip in July as Frozen and Refrigerated Aisles Buck the Trend

July Grocery Units Slip Across Fresh Aisles, While Frozen and Refrigerated Gain

Grocery shoppers bought fewer items across most of the store in July, according to Circana point-of-sale data analyzed by 210 Analytics. Total food and beverage unit sales declined 0.9% in the four weeks ending July 26 compared with the same period a year earlier, with fresh departments doing most of the heavy lifting on the downside.

Fresh produce was the sharpest drag: unit sales fell 4.7% and volume fell 3.7%. Fresh fruit volume dropped 4.5%, double the 2.3% decline in vegetables. Yet frozen fruit and vegetables moved the other way, with unit sales up 5.1%. Frozen foods overall eked out a 0.2% unit gain, their first such increase in months, helped by frozen snacks (+3.2%), frozen baked goods (+3.7%) and frozen desserts (+1.5%). Frozen meals fell 2.1% and frozen seafood units dropped 6.7%.

Refrigerated foods were the strongest broad category, with unit sales up 1.2% and positive growth in all four weeks. Milk, natural cheese and yogurt posted gains; cottage cheese units jumped 7.5%, whipped toppings rose 6.4% and refrigerated condiments increased 8.5%. Bakery units fell 2.7%, with aisle bakery off 3.3% and perimeter bakery down 1.7%. Deli was nearly flat at -0.2%, though deli entertaining (+1.5%) and cheese (+0.4%) grew while deli meat fell 2.2%.

Meat was essentially flat by volume, with fresh meat pounds up 0.1%. Beef rose 1.4%, but chicken slipped 0.4% and pork fell 1.3%; ground chicken volume surged 27.4%. Seafood demand was split: fresh seafood volume declined 2.8% and frozen seafood volume fell 4.7%, while shelf-stable seafood rose 4.5%, led by sardines (+24.4%) and salmon (+10.4%). Plant-based meat alternatives continued to struggle, with combined refrigerated and frozen units down 8.4% to 11.1 million.

What the Unit Data Reveals About Category Substitution and Retail Risk

The July data is best read as a map of relative strength rather than a single demand collapse. Total units fell less than 1%, but the variation underneath is significant.

Fresh produce's 4.7% unit drop is the clearest warning

When fresh fruit and vegetable units fall while frozen fruit and vegetable units rise 5.1%, the most plausible explanation is substitution driven by price, convenience or both. The report does not include pricing, so unit declines do not automatically mean dollar sales fell at the same rate. But volume also fell 3.7% in produce, which means the weakness is not simply a measurement artifact.

Refrigerated dairy and condiments were the month's broadest bright spot

Refrigerated foods rose in each of the four weeks, and the gains were spread across everyday staples such as milk, cheese and yogurt rather than one standout item. Cottage cheese's 7.5% unit jump and the 8.5% rise in refrigerated condiments point to at-home meal preparation, where condiments and dairy act as relatively low-cost ways to add variety.

Plant-based meat alternatives are still losing shelf space momentum

An 8.4% decline to 11.1 million combined units is a material drop for a category that has already faced repeated resets. The weakness was not isolated to one temperature state: frozen plant-based alternatives fell 6.5%, and refrigerated contributed to the combined decline. Retailers will likely continue trimming the set unless branded innovation changes the trajectory.

The meat and seafood sections show a fresh-versus-shelf-stable trade

Beef volume rose 1.4% while chicken and pork declined, suggesting some rotation among proteins rather than a broad reduction. Ground chicken's 27.4% volume surge stands out as an outlier. In seafood, the shift from fresh and frozen toward shelf-stable products — with sardines up 24.4% and salmon up 10.4% — may reflect a longer shelf life and smaller package formats, though the Circana data does not state the cause.

Category-Specific Merchandising Moves From July's Data

The following moves follow directly from July's unit patterns and are aimed at grocery buyers, merchandisers and category managers.

• Reset fresh produce with a clear price-communication plan: Fresh produce units fell 4.7% while frozen fruit and vegetables rose 5.1%. Re-examine pricing, package sizes and placement for the fruit categories that lost 4.5% in volume before the gap widens.
• Expand secondary displays around refrigerated growth items: Cottage cheese (+7.5%), whipped toppings (+6.4%) and refrigerated condiments (+8.5%) all gained units in a soft month; use those items in meal-anchored merchandising rather than isolated price cuts.
• Rebalance frozen shelf space: Frozen snacks (+3.2%), baked goods (+3.7%) and desserts (+1.5%) grew, while frozen meals fell 2.1% and frozen seafood units dropped 6.7%. Shift facings and promotional dollars toward the growing subcategories.
• Test shelf-stable seafood assortment: Shelf-stable seafood volume rose 4.5%, led by sardines (+24.4%) and salmon (+10.4%); buyers can trial expanded facings where shelf space allows.
• Use the next category review to rationalize plant-based alternatives: Combined refrigerated and frozen alternatives fell 8.4% to 11.1 million units. Target underperforming SKUs for reduction rather than removing the category wholesale.
• Adjust the deli case toward entertaining and cheese: Deli entertaining rose 1.5% and cheese rose 0.4%, while deli meat fell 2.2% and prepared foods slipped 0.3%.