Paraguay Wheat Exports Jump 71% to US$92.5 Million in 2026 First Half

Paraguay's Wheat Export Surge by the Numbers

Paraguay's wheat exports delivered one of the strongest performances in the country's agricultural trade in the first half of 2026, according to data from the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP). Between January and June, the country shipped 425,200 tonnes of wheat, up from 248,100 tonnes in the same period of 2025 — an increase of 177,100 tonnes, or 71.4% year on year.

The volume surge translated into US$92.5 million in export revenue, a 52% gain over the US$60.8 million recorded a year earlier. The BCP figures put wheat at 1.4% of the value of all primary products exported in the semester and 4.2% of their volume, with the grain accounting for 0.6 percentage points of the growth in Paraguay's total exports over the period.

The wheat results stood out against the rest of the grain complex: corn exports fell in both volume and value during the same six months. Wheat's advance came within a broader expansion, as Paraguay's total exports reached US$6.5534 billion between January and June, up 19.3% from the year-earlier period.

Volume, Prices and the Corn Contrast Behind Wheat's H1 Gain

Volume Outran Revenue: The Price Signal Hidden in the BCP Totals

The clearest analytical signal in the report is the gap between the two growth rates. Volume rose 71.4% while revenue rose 52%, which means the average value per tonne fell. Dividing the reported totals, wheat earned roughly US$218 per tonne in the first half of 2026, against about US$245 per tonne in the same period of 2025 — a decline of roughly 11%. This calculation is derived from the BCP's figures rather than published by the bank. The practical conclusion: the export boom was a volume story, not a price story. Paraguay earned more because it shipped far more grain, not because buyers paid more.

Wheat vs. Corn: A Divergence Within Paraguay's Grain Complex

The BCP data show corn exports falling in both volume and value over the same six months, while wheat expanded sharply. The combination suggests a shift in the mix of grain Paraguay sells abroad — whether from farmers rotating acreage toward wheat or from demand conditions favoring wheat over corn in export markets. The source does not state which mechanism drove the divergence, so that explanation is an interpretation, not a reported fact. What the figures do establish is that wheat is consolidating its place as a commercial export crop rather than a secondary rotation.

Why a 0.6-Point Contribution Still Leaves Wheat a Small Export

For all the dynamism, wheat accounted for just 1.4% of the value of Paraguay's primary-product exports and contributed 0.6 percentage points of the 19.3% growth in total exports. The numbers are real but modest: wheat can move the headline trade figures in a semester like this one, but it is not yet a structural driver of the country's export balance. Its significance lies in the trajectory — a sharply rising one — rather than in the current weight.

The Second-Half Data Will Decide: Spike or Shift

The report covers only January to June. Whether the 71.4% pace continues depends on volumes shipped in the second half and on whether the softer unit values persist. The BCP's monthly trade releases will settle that question in the coming months; nothing in the current data does.

Turning the H1 Wheat Data Into Trading and Planting Decisions

For the growers, exporters and buyers who trade Paraguayan wheat, the half-year data carry several concrete signals.

• Exporters: plan around the volume-revenue gap. With average unit values at roughly US$218 per tonne in the first half of 2026 versus about US$245 a year earlier (derived from the BCP totals), revenue rose 52% only because volumes jumped 71.4% — future income depends on moving more grain, not on firmer prices.
• Growers: treat the wheat-corn split as a price signal. Wheat shipments climbed 71.4% while corn exports fell in volume and value, supporting rotation and marketing decisions that favor wheat — though the BCP data do not cover the input costs that also shape planting economics.
• Grain buyers: price in a larger supply base. The H1 figures imply more Paraguayan wheat available at lower per-tonne values than a year ago, a factor worth reflecting in procurement budgets before the second-half data are published.
• Trade analysts: watch the next BCP monthly export release. It will show whether the 71.4% wheat expansion continues in the second half or reverts toward the sector's earlier trajectory.