Kazakhstan's 2025 FDI Reversal: From $2.04bn Inflow to $916m Outflow
Kazakhstan ended 2025 as the only Eurasian Economic Union economy with a net foreign direct investment flow in negative territory, recording a $916.4m outflow after a $2.04bn inflow in 2024. That reverses a period in 2022–2023 when Kazakhstan led the bloc on the same measure. By contrast, Russia recorded its first positive annual FDI flow since the start of its full-scale war in Ukraine, at $11.1bn.
The negative figure does not mean foreign investors stopped putting money into Kazakhstan. Net FDI is a balance of equity injections, reinvested earnings and debt instruments. Equity contributions remained positive at $1.5bn, but reinvested earnings and debt instruments swung to -$1.46bn and -$956.9m respectively. The largest single factor was a $7.5bn outflow from the extractive sector, 4.1 times the previous year, which analysts linked to the completion of major oil investment projects and a shift by investors toward profit repatriation.
The drag spread beyond oil: manufacturing FDI fell 39.2%, research and development declined 24.7%, and construction recorded a $468.9m outflow. At the same time, some non-extractive sectors expanded sharply. Financial and insurance activities attracted $2.7bn, almost ten times the 2024 level; information and communications received $1.2bn; electricity, gas and water supply grew 4.1-fold; and hotels and restaurants grew 19.5-fold.
The largest withdrawals came from investors in the United States, at $4.2bn, and from Bermuda, at $2bn. Inflows from EAEU partners fell 3.7 times to $453.4m, with Russian investment down 4.4 times to $395.7m. Russia still accounted for 87.3% of EAEU-origin investment into Kazakhstan, underscoring how concentrated the regional channel remains.
Why Oil Project Wind-Downs Overwhelmed Kazakhstan's FDI Gains
Why the oil-sector swing dominates the national picture
The $7.5bn extractive outflow is not primarily a sign of failed policy; it reflects the end of capital-intensive construction phases at large oil projects and a shift to dividend and profit repatriation. That reading is consistent with the $468.9m construction outflow and the 39.2% drop in manufacturing FDI, which suppliers and contractors would feel as follow-on effects of reduced project activity. For a resource-dependent economy such as Kazakhstan, headline FDI can therefore stay negative even while new equity commitments continue to arrive.
Where capital actually went: finance, ICT and utilities
The $2.7bn inflow into financial and insurance activity, the $1.2bn into information and communications, and the 4.1-fold rise in electricity, gas and water investment suggest a rotation in investor appetite rather than a broad retreat. These sectors are much smaller than extractives, so they cannot offset a $7.5bn oil-sector swing in a single year. But their growth rates show that foreign capital is not uniformly leaving the economy.
What the US, Bermuda and Russia numbers reveal
The $4.2bn US outflow and $2bn Bermuda outflow are large enough to explain the non-CIS/EAEU swing from +$331.2m in 2024 to -$1.4bn in 2025. That points to repatriation by international oil investors rather than a broad exit by all foreign firms. Russia's return to $11.1bn positive FDI changes the regional context, but its direct investment into Kazakhstan still fell to $395.7m. The result is a highly concentrated EAEU inflow base in which Russia accounts for 87.3% of the total.
What the Shifting FDI Mix Means for Investors, Suppliers and Policy Planning
- For energy suppliers and contractors: the $7.5bn extractive outflow and $468.9m construction outflow mean Kazakhstan's big-project construction cycle is cooling, not expanding. Base 2026 revenue plans on continued weak project-linked demand and the 39.2% manufacturing FDI decline, not on 2024's pipeline.
- For foreign investors: do not read the -$916.4m net figure as a withdrawal of all capital; equity contributions remained positive at $1.5bn. Separate oil-field profit repatriation from new commitments when assessing Kazakhstan's risk.
- For companies seeking growth sectors: the $2.7bn financial and insurance inflow, $1.2bn ICT inflow, and 19.5-fold hotel and restaurant increase identify where foreign money is actually being deployed; these are the strongest current entry points in the data.
- For Kazakhstan policy and investment promotion: EAEU inflows fell 3.7 times to $453.4m, with 87.3% coming from Russia, while non-CIS/EAEU flows flipped to -$1.4bn. Rebuilding FDI will require reversing that non-CIS/EAEU swing rather than relying on a single regional source.
Risk & Opportunity Assessment
| Commercial Risk | High | Kazakhstan's net FDI swung from +$2.04bn to -$916.4m, driven by a $7.5bn outflow from extractives and a $468.9m construction outflow, which directly affects suppliers, contractors and project-dependent businesses. |
| Competitive Risk | Medium | Russia returned to $11.1bn positive FDI, Armenia's inflows rose 6.4-fold and Kyrgyzstan's 31.4%, increasing regional competition for capital while Kazakhstan moved into negative territory. |
| Regulatory Risk | Low | The article identifies no new regulatory action driving the change; the negative print is explained mainly by project completion and profit repatriation. A sustained downturn could invite policy changes, but that is not yet evident. |
| Reputation Risk | Medium | Kazakhstan is the only EAEU economy with negative FDI, and the $4.2bn US and $2bn Bermuda withdrawals may shape investor perception even if the underlying cause is the end of major oil projects. |
| Technology Disruption | Low | This is not a technology-driven shock; information and communications FDI actually grew 4.4-fold to $1.2bn, indicating a sectoral rather than technological shift. |
| Commercial Opportunity | High | Finance and insurance FDI reached $2.7bn, ICT reached $1.2bn, utilities grew 4.1-fold and hotels and restaurants grew 19.5-fold, showing fast-growing non-extractive sectors with current momentum. |
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