560 Minutes of Weekly Exercise Needed for Major Heart Attack and Stroke Reduction, Study Finds

150 Minutes Provides Only Modest Protection, Large Study Suggests

The widely cited public health advice to get at least 150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous exercise each week may offer only a modest shield against heart attacks and strokes, a large observational study suggests. Published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, the analysis finds that while meeting that minimum is linked to an 8–9% lower risk of cardiovascular events, substantially greater protection appears to require three to four times as much activity.

Researchers at Macao Polytechnic University examined data from 17,088 adults enrolled in the UK Biobank study. Participants, whose average age was 57 and 56% of whom were female, wore wrist activity trackers for seven days and completed a cycling test to estimate their cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2 max). Over an average follow-up of 7.8 years, the team recorded 1,233 cardiovascular events—including heart attacks, strokes, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation.

Adults who reached the recommended 150 minutes per week saw that 8–9% risk reduction. In contrast, those who accumulated 560 to 610 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity each week—equivalent to roughly 80–90 minutes daily of brisk walking, running, or cycling—were associated with a more than 30% lower risk. The study also suggests that people with lower baseline fitness levels need roughly 30–50 extra minutes of activity per week than highly fit individuals to achieve similar heart-protective benefits.

Because the research is observational, it cannot prove that higher exercise volumes directly cause the lower risk. The team also acknowledges that participants may have been healthier than the general population, fitness was estimated rather than directly measured, and sedentary time was not assessed. Nonetheless, the authors argue that future exercise guidelines may need to distinguish between a minimal “safety margin” of activity and the much higher volumes required for optimal cardiovascular risk reduction.

Why 560 Minutes of Exercise Is the New Target for Heart Health

The Modest Effect of Current Guidelines

The study quantifies what many exercise scientists have long suspected: 150 weekly minutes, while a useful public health floor, delivers only a single-digit percentage drop in cardiovascular risk. That 8–9% reduction, consistent across all fitness levels, is undoubtedly valuable at the population level, but it leaves motivated individuals wondering how much more they need to do for a truly major health pay-off.

Fitness-Dependent Exercise Needs

The dose-response relationship becomes steeper for those with lower baseline fitness. To achieve a 20% reduction in cardiovascular risk, the least-fit participants required about 370 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous activity per week, while the fittest achieved the same drop with roughly 340 minutes. This 30–50-minute gap, the researchers note, underscores the “steeper challenge faced by deconditioned populations” and suggests that a one-size-fits-all target may leave the most vulnerable behind.

What This Means for Public Health Campaigns

The findings add weight to calls for personalised activity prescriptions. Rather than a single universal number, future guidelines could offer a ladder of recommendations: a proven minimum, a mid-range target for meaningful risk reduction, and an upper tier for those seeking near-maximum cardiovascular protection. Such an approach aligns with emerging digital health tools that can estimate VO2 max from wearable data, potentially allowing clinicians and fitness apps to set bespoke weekly minutes targets. The study’s authors themselves conclude that separating ‘minimal safety’ from ‘optimal’ activity volumes would help motivated patients push past the current guideline without abandoning those who are just starting.

How to Reach the Higher Activity Levels That May Protect Your Heart

The study does not argue that 150 minutes a week is useless—it confirms it lowers risk—but it does suggest that significantly more activity is required for major protection. Based on these findings, here are concrete steps for those who want to move the needle on their heart health:

• Scale up gradually toward 560–610 weekly minutes. That target—roughly 80–90 minutes a day of brisk walking, jogging, cycling, or equivalent effort—was linked to a more than 30% reduction in cardiovascular events. Add one or two 20-minute sessions a week until you reach a sustainable higher volume.
• Account for your fitness starting point. The study found that people with lower cardiorespiratory fitness required about 30–50 extra minutes of moderate-to-vigorous activity per week to get the same risk reduction as fitter peers. If you have been largely sedentary, aim for 370 total minutes a week as an intermediate step toward the 560+ goal.
• Use a fitness wearable to track minutes and intensity. The UK Biobank data relied on wrist-worn trackers, and many consumer devices now provide credible weekly activity tallies. Aim for time spent in the “moderate-to-vigorous” zone rather than total steps alone.
• Combine with other heart-healthy habits. While the study did not measure sedentary time or lower-intensity movement, staying active throughout the day and avoiding prolonged sitting align with broader cardiovascular research. Every bit of movement contributes to the total weekly count.
• Consult a healthcare professional before a big jump in activity, especially if you have existing heart disease risk factors or symptoms. A doctor or exercise physiologist can help interpret VO2 max or fitness estimates and set safe, personalised targets.