Freight Spending Surges 28% Despite Falling Shipments as Truck Capacity Tightens

Shipments Soften but Spending Jumps as Freight Capacity Tightens

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index for the second quarter of 2026 tells a story of two opposing forces in the trucking market. The shipment index fell to 75.1, down 1.1% from the first quarter and 2.8% lower than a year earlier, marking a return to decline after a brief annual gain in Q1. Yet the spending index, also at 75.1, surged 28.1% compared to the same quarter last year, even though it slipped 1.1% sequentially. The disconnect reveals a market where capacity has become scarcer and more expensive.

The index, based on actual transaction payment data from truckload and less-than-truckload moves handled by U.S. Bank—which processes over $43 billion in annual freight payments—captures both volume and outlay. Shipment gains were patchy and concentrated in aerospace, transportation equipment, and electronics; excluding those sectors, factory output growth was nearly flat. Regionally, the Northeast and Southeast saw annual shipment drops of 2% and 6.5%, respectively, while the Southwest plummeted 20.2%. By contrast, the West posted a modest 5.5% annual shipment increase.

Spending, however, rose nearly everywhere. The Southwest stood out: spending jumped 11.2% sequentially and 39.9% year-over-year despite a 0.6% quarterly shipment decline. Fuel contributed—diesel peaked at $5.64 per gallon in April before retreating to $4.67 by quarter-end—but the report and experts identified tight capacity as the primary driver. Carriers faced fewer competitors for loads, allowing them to push through higher rates even as demand softened.

Why Shippers Are Paying More Despite Weaker Freight Demand

The Capacity Squeeze: Exits and Enforcement

Bob Costello, chief economist of the American Trucking Associations and the report’s lead author, pointed to two root causes. First, a prolonged freight recession has forced small, mid-sized, and large fleets out of the market, gradually reducing supply. Second, federal safety and compliance actions—English language provisions, revocations of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, and heightened oversight of driver training schools—have further constrained available capacity. “In many markets, limited capacity appears to have been the larger factor,” the report noted, meaning shippers are paying more not because demand is booming, but because there are fewer trucks chasing loads.

Regional Divergence and What It Signals

The Southwest’s extreme spread between shipments and spend—a pattern Director of Freight Business Analytics Bobby Holland called “a signal that capacity conditions can have a significant impact on freight costs even when underlying demand isn’t growing”—highlights how localized supply crunches can distort pricing. The West and Midwest saw modest sequential shipment gains, but spending jumped 12% and 11.2% quarter-over-quarter in those regions, indicating broad-based rate increases. For shippers, this means that even in lanes where freight demand is weak, the cost of moving goods may still rise sharply.

Fuel Still Matters, but Less Than Supply

Despite diesel’s retreat from its April peak, fuel surcharges added $0.75 per mile to costs during the quarter, up $0.24 sequentially and nearly 80% year-over-year. Yet Costello reiterated that tighter capacity, not fuel, was the bigger contributor. With diesel falling later in the quarter, shippers might expect some relief in Q3, but capacity constraints will likely keep base rates elevated unless demand accelerates enough to draw more trucks back into the market.

What Logistics Managers Should Do Now

• Review carrier contracts and spot-market exposure: With capacity tight and rates rising, locking in dedicated or contract rates now—especially in volatile regions like the Southwest—can protect budgets against further increases.
• Reassess lane-by-lane strategies: Shipments are falling in several regions while costs climb. Redirecting freight to lanes with less capacity pressure or consolidating shipments to fill trucks more efficiently can offset higher per-mile expenses.
• Engage with carriers proactively: Fleets are still exiting, and regulatory hurdles may shrink supply further. Building deeper relationships with reliable carriers can secure priority access when spot capacity evaporates.
• Monitor diesel trends and compliance deadlines: The late-quarter diesel decline may ease surcharges temporarily, but upcoming federal safety and licensing changes—such as ELP enforcement and CDL oversight—could further restrict driver availability. Factor these timelines into bid cycles and capacity planning.