Truckload Rates Hold Higher Floor in July as Capacity Trumps Softer Freight Volumes

July DAT Truckload Data: Volume Drops, Rates Stay Elevated

The DAT Truckload Volume Index for July found freight volumes retreating across dry van, refrigerated and flatbed segments even as truckload pricing stayed unusually firm. Van loads fell 11% from June to an index reading of 252 and were flat compared with July 2025. Reefer volume was down 5% from June to 181 and 13% lower than a year earlier. Flatbed loads fell 12% sequentially to 291, a 4% year-over-year decline.

DAT said the overall pullback was broadly in line with normal July seasonality, but it highlighted one exception: the flatbed segment's 8% sequential volume drop was its largest in six years. Despite softer freight demand, dry van and reefer contract rates posted unusually strong June-to-July gains.

On the spot market, the national average rate came in at $3.01 per mile for van freight, $3.42 for reefer and $3.64 for flatbed, according to DAT. Van and reefer spot rates were up $0.96 and $1.00 per mile, respectively, from July 2025. Contract linehaul rates were more mixed month over month—van rose $0.02 to $2.39 per mile, reefer rose $0.05 to $2.75, and flatbed fell $0.04 to $2.90—but all three were sharply above year-earlier levels.

Average fuel surcharges slipped $0.01–$0.02 from June to July, landing at $0.62 per mile for van, $0.67 for reefer and $0.74 for flatbed, while remaining well above prior-year levels.

Why Capacity, Tariffs and Enforcement Are Keeping Truck Rates High

Capacity, Not Freight Demand, Is Doing the Pricing

DAT industry analyst Dean Croke's central argument is that July's rate strength did not come from a surge in shipping demand. Van spot and contract rates reached parity while volumes declined, and van and reefer rates posted record June-to-July gains. In Croke's interpretation, that combination means available capacity—not freight demand—is exerting the larger influence on prices. Drivers and trucks are leaving the market faster than expected, and that supply-side squeeze is repricing freight even when load counts weaken.

The analyst estimates the market is now sitting on a floor roughly 35% to 40% above year-earlier levels, with contract rates repricing about 9% to 11% higher than a year ago. He does not expect the early July panic among shippers to return; after the July 4 holiday, spot rates cooled and, by mid-August, had given back roughly $0.24 to $0.25 from the peak.

The Tariff Pull-Forward and Regulatory Overhang

Croke links the July run-up to tariff-related pre-shipping and demand pulled forward into West Coast ports, on top of normal seasonal activity, plus regulatory actions that reduced the number of available trucks. That mix helped push flatbed spot rates above $3.00 per mile—described as a record—before the segment cooled quickly in August. For shippers, the pullback matters because it offers a possible opening to reprice freight below what earlier budget assumptions suggested.

Looking ahead, Croke expects rates to spike around scheduled enforcement and seasonal shocks, including the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's Brake Safety Week 2026 and Halloween. Those events are likely to produce volatility, but he does not expect them to break the higher year-over-year floor.

Flatbed Holds Firmest, Reefer Stays Regional

By equipment type, Croke sees dry van rates holding steady or drifting slightly lower, while reefer follows normal seasonal and regional produce patterns—including stronger activity in the Pacific Northwest and fall produce areas—without moving the national average much. Flatbed is the segment he views as holding firmest and having the most potential to keep climbing.

What the July Rate Signals Mean for Shippers and Carriers

For freight buyers and carriers, the July data points to a market with a higher price floor and short-lived volatility rather than a return to pre-2025 rates. Specific moves suggested by the report:

• Shippers locked into Q3 budgets: The August spot pullback of about $0.24–$0.25 from the early July peak creates a renegotiation window. Use the 9%–11% year-over-year contract repricing figure as a benchmark when reviewing carrier bids.
• Flatbed freight buyers: Budget for continued firmness. Croke sees flatbed as the segment with the most potential to keep climbing, even after July's six-year-record volume drop.
• Shippers with West Coast import exposure: Factor tariff-related pre-shipping and capacity pull-forward into fall inventory decisions; the July pattern showed demand arriving earlier, then cooling quickly.
• Plan around enforcement dates: CVSA Brake Safety Week 2026 and the Halloween period are both expected to produce rate spikes. Schedule moveable freight outside those windows or build the expected premium into bids.
• Carriers and brokers: Capacity scarcity supports current pricing, but the August cooling shows shippers are no longer in panic mode. Anchor contract proposals to the slowing rate-growth outlook rather than early July spot spikes.