Hormuz Shipping Slows to a Crawl After Tanker Attacks

Commodity shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a near standstill over the weekend, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. Five vessels transited the strait on Saturday and none were registered for Sunday, compared with 31 in the prior weekend. The figures are far below the more than 130 ships a day that traversed the waterway before the conflict began.

The slowdown follows the United Arab Emirates' announcement that three vessels operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked in transit last week. The United States has said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, while Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Washington must meet Iran's conditions regarding the strait for shipping to resume.

The Strait of Hormuz handled about a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war, making it one of the most important chokepoints for global energy supply. At the Bab el-Mandeb strait, Kpler recorded 49 weekend transits by commodity vessels, down from 55 the previous week, with no tracked Saudi oil shipments.

Why the Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil and LNG Supply Chains

What the Kpler Data Reveals About Hormuz Traffic

The collapse from 31 weekend transits to five on Saturday and zero on Sunday is not just a routine fluctuation. It points to a rapid withdrawal of commercial traffic as attack risk and the threat of a US naval blockade make normal routing untenable. Some vessels are attempting to move without transponders—Kpler noted an empty Very Large Crude Carrier with its Automatic Identification System switched off—suggesting that some operators are choosing dark transits rather than halting entirely.

This is verified movement data, but it understates total traffic: ships with transponders off may pass undetected. The useful signal is the scale of the fall relative to pre-war levels of more than 130 ships per day.

The Energy Supply Consequence

Hormuz is the exit for a fifth of global crude and LNG shipments. A prolonged standstill would tighten supply of crude, refined products and gas at a time when the Bab el-Mandeb route is also constricted. Kpler recorded 49 weekend transits there, down from 55, and no tracked Saudi oil shipments. The combined strain on two chokepoints raises the cost of alternative routes and the war-risk premium on cargoes still moving.

ADNOC, Iran and the Political Deadlock

The UAE's ADNOC has become a direct target, with three of its vessels attacked last week. Iran's foreign minister has tied the resumption of shipping to US acceptance of Iranian conditions, while Washington says its naval blockade can continue indefinitely. This leaves tanker operators and charterers with no near-term assurance that normal traffic will resume. The attack signal is not purely military; it is also a commercial deterrent aimed at Gulf oil exporters and the insurers who cover their cargoes.

What Energy and Shipping Operators Should Watch Next

  • Charterers and traders with Middle East oil or LNG exposure should price in the new Hormuz transit baseline: five commodity vessels on Saturday and none on Sunday, against 31 the prior weekend and more than 130 ships a day pre-war.
  • Tanker owners and operators should expect continued route selection under AIS-dark conditions; Kpler recorded an empty VLCC moving with its transponder off, indicating that dark transit has already begun rather than remaining a theoretical option.
  • Insurers and cargo underwriters should review exposure to ADNOC-linked vessels after three Abu Dhabi National Oil Company-operated ships were attacked in transit last week.
  • Buyers of Saudi crude should factor in the Bab el-Mandeb signal: 49 weekend commodity transits, down from 55, with no tracked Saudi oil shipments, adding a second chokepoint constraint.
  • Negotiators and policy teams should treat Araqchi's statement as the current Iranian precondition: shipping resumes only when Washington meets Iran's conditions on the strait, not on a fixed date.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskCriticalWeekend transits collapsed to five commodity vessels on Saturday and none on Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend and more than 130 per day pre-war, threatening crude and LNG cargo delivery and revenue.
Competitive RiskHighCarriers able to operate with AIS off or use the Iranian route may capture scarce charters, while others face idle capacity and route displacement.
Regulatory RiskHighThe US has said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Iran has tied shipping resumption to US acceptance of its conditions, creating an unpredictable legal and port-call environment.
Reputation RiskMediumThe attack on three ADNOC-operated vessels exposes security vulnerabilities, and operators using dark transits or the Iranian route may face increased scrutiny from insurers, customers and governments.
Technology DisruptionLowThe tracked AIS switch-off is a compliance and security shift rather than a product or technology disruption, though it reduces visibility for port states and cargo owners.
Commercial OpportunityHighRerouting, higher war-risk premiums and scarce available tankers could create pricing power for owners with risk appetite and alternative supply routes.