Temu and Shein Swamp Global Air Cargo with 88 Planeloads a Day

Temu and Shein’s Explosive Growth Overwhelms the Air Cargo Market

Chinese e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein are now moving the equivalent of 88 fully loaded Boeing 777 freighters around the globe every single day—roughly 9,000 tonnes of apparel, electronics and household goods. The sheer scale of their demand has, in less than two years, distorted air freight markets out of South China to the United States and beyond.

According to freight rate benchmarking firm Xeneta, the average spot rate from South China to the US hit $4.75 per kilogram in May, more than double the $2.32 seen in the same period of 2019. Unlike the pandemic-era spikes of 2020–21—when rates peaked above $10/kg because of system-wide bottlenecks—analysts say this surge is almost entirely driven by just two companies. The pressure has been so intense that carriers such as Atlas Air have rushed to add dedicated freighter capacity for Chinese logistics partners, a sign that the industry expects the flood of parcels to continue.

How Two Retailers Redrew Global Air Freight in 18 Months

The Scale of the Surge

Xeneta Chief Air Freight Officer Niall van de Wouw remarked that the velocity of change caught the entire logistics industry off guard. This demand emerged practically overnight from a retailer that was unknown to most outside China just a year and a half ago. The daily volume of Temu and Shein combined rivals the entire Prime Air fleet of Amazon, which operates 86 aircraft. Such concentrated demand by a handful of shippers is—according to van de Wouw—unprecedented in modern air freight.

Who Gains and Who Loses

Freight forwarders and cargo airlines with available capacity have seen a windfall; Atlas Air, for instance, has expanded its deal with YunExpress, a Chinese parcel carrier closely tied to the e-commerce boom. However, traditional retailers, manufacturers and other importers that rely on the same transpacific lanes now face sharply higher costs and reduced availability of space, forcing them to either pay up or accept slower delivery. The imbalance is particularly acute for mid-size firms that lack the volume to negotiate priority deals.

The Subsidy Question

Both Temu and Shein have so far been willing to heavily subsidise fast shipping to win market share in Western markets, absorbing air freight costs that are steep by any standard. The models—direct-from-factory sales with ultra-low price points—have been built on a bet that customer acquisition today justifies the logistics bill tomorrow. Analysts caution that if rates stay elevated or climb further, either the subsidies will be wound down or the cost will eventually feed into consumer prices, potentially eroding the platforms’ main competitive advantage.

What Logistics Operators and Competing Shippers Must Do Now

The rapid build-up of dedicated e-commerce air capacity has tangible consequences for everyone who buys or sells freight on these routes:

• Freight forwarders and logistics providers should secure medium-term block space agreements now, before peak-season bidding pushes rates beyond current levels. Those with flexible access to belly capacity on passenger flights may gain a short-term advantage.
• Retailers and brands that depend on time-sensitive shipments from China face a structural cost headwind. Near-shoring shorter supply chains or building local buffer inventory outside peak seasons are no longer optional—they are defensive measures against unpredictable air freight pricing.
• Investors in air cargo and shipping equities can watch for earnings guidance from carriers like Atlas Air and forwarders exposed to China-US lanes; a sustained $4–5/kg rate would materially lift margins for any operator with uncommitted capacity.
• E-commerce competitors (including Amazon) may need to accelerate alternative fulfilment models—such as regional warehouses or sea-air hybrids—to avoid being priced out of the very delivery promises that have defined customer expectations.