Truckload Volumes Slip in July, But Contract Rates Set Fresh Records

July Truckload Index: Volumes Dip, Van and Reefer Contract Rates Set Records

Freight volumes pulled back sharply in July, but truckload pricing kept climbing, according to the DAT Truckload Volume Index released by DAT Freight and Analytics. The index, which tracks dry van, refrigerated and flatbed loads against a January 2015 baseline of 100, showed the van index at 252, down 11% from June and flat versus a year earlier. The reefer index fell 5% month over month to 181 and was 13% below July 2025, while the flatbed index dropped 12% from June to 291, down 4% year over year.

DAT said the sequential declines largely matched normal seasonal patterns after a busy June, while flagging flatbed's pullback as unusually steep. On the pricing side, dry van and reefer contract rates set new records for June-to-July gains: dry van reached $3.01 per mile, up $0.12, and reefer reached $3.29, up $0.07. Flatbed contract rates rose $0.03 to $3.83 per mile.

National average spot rates reached $3.01 per mile for vans, $3.42 for reefers and $3.64 for flatbeds, with year-over-year gains of roughly $0.96 to $1.09. Stripping out fuel, contract linehaul rates were mixed, with van and reefer higher and flatbed slightly lower. DAT analyst Dean Croke said van spot and contract rates reached parity even as volumes declined, a pattern he views as evidence that available capacity, not freight demand, is now the dominant force in pricing.

Average fuel surcharges slipped $0.01 to $0.02 from June, while year-over-year contract linehaul gains ranged from $0.76 to $0.86 across the three segments.

Why Tight Capacity Is Driving Rates Higher as Load Counts Fall

Capacity, Not Freight Demand, Is Setting the Price

The unusual part of July is that rates rose while load counts fell. Traditionally, stronger demand drives prices higher, but Croke said spot rates above contract rates have historically signaled a tightening market, and the current cycle is different because capacity is doing the work. Van spot and contract rates reached parity even as volumes declined, which he said shows available truck supply is exerting greater influence over pricing than freight demand.

Tariff Pre-Shipping and Driver Exits Created the July Spike

According to Croke, the run-up into early July was driven by a tariff bump ahead of normal seasonality. Shippers pulled freight forward into West Coast ports because of tariff concerns, while drivers and capacity left the market faster than expected under various regulatory actions. The result was a period of robust seasonal demand meeting a much smaller truck supply, which pushed spot rates sharply higher.

Contract Repricing Is Now the Main Battleground

Contract rates are repricing around 9% to 11% above last year, but the shipper panic that preceded July 4 has cooled as spot rates retreated. Croke said one large shipper described carriers using spot rates as a base to renegotiate contracts, and rates have already dropped roughly 24 to 25 cents halfway through August. He expects contract growth to continue, but at a less aggressive pace than carriers were pitching during the peak.

Flatbed Looks Firmest; Dry Van and Reefer Are Cooling

By equipment type, Croke expects dry van rates to hold or drift slightly lower. Reefer rates should follow normal seasonal cooling until fall, with regional strength in the Pacific Northwest and fall produce areas unlikely to move the national average. Flatbed, however, has the firmest floor and the most potential to keep climbing, even after its record spike pulled back. He also expects rate spikes around the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's Brake Safety Week 2026 and Halloween, while a year-over-year floor of 35% to 40% higher appears likely to persist.

What the Rate Floor Means for Shippers and Carriers

The July data points to a market with a higher rate floor but shifting negotiating leverage. Shippers can use the post-July spot pullback, while carriers and brokers should lock contract gains before momentum fades.

• Shippers: Use the current spot cooling, with rates down roughly 24 to 25 cents since early August, to push for contract renewals below the peak quotes carriers made around July 4.
• Flatbed shippers: Budget for the tightest segment; Croke sees flatbed as the most likely to hold firm or climb, so longer-term coverage may be more valuable there.
• Carriers and brokers: Lock contract increases while contract rates are repricing 9% to 11% above last year, because further spot cooling may weaken your negotiating story.
• Both sides: Treat Brake Safety Week 2026 and Halloween as likely rate-spike windows and plan tender or scheduling decisions around them rather than assuming July peaks will repeat.
• Budget planners: Work from a roughly 35% to 40% year-over-year rate floor rather than extrapolating the early-July spike into the fall.