Ageing-Population Equities: APICIL AM Sees a Defensive Growth Rebound After Years of Lag

Why Ageing-Population Stocks Have Lagged the Global Market

Demographic ageing is one of the most visible structural shifts in developed economies: in the United States, around 10,000 people turn 65 every day, and the share of the population over 85 is on track to double between 2022 and 2040. APICIL AM's Hervé Samour-Cachian, director of fund management, describes the trend as not merely demographic but a structural transformation that is redefining lifestyles, saving and prevention. The firm puts the global silver economy at $2.8 trillion in 2024, rising to $5.5 trillion by 2033 — roughly 8% annual growth.

Yet the listed equities tied to this theme have not kept pace. Over the decade to the end of April 2026, the MSCI World Health Care index gained 8.5% per year, while the broad MSCI World returned 13.2% annually. Samour-Cachian attributes the shortfall to a rotation into AI-linked mega-cap technology stocks, rising interest rates that pressured valuations, regulatory uncertainty and a demanding post-Covid base effect.

The demographic turning point is nonetheless accelerating. APICIL AM notes that 2025 marked the start of the decline in the working-age population across OECD countries, and in the United States the over-75 group is projected to grow four times faster than the rest of the population. Samour-Cachian frames the investment question not as whether populations will age — that is certain — but which companies can convert that ageing into durable growth.

APICIL AM argues the theme combines growth with a defensive quality, because healthcare spending is structurally less cyclical: households may postpone vacations or car purchases in a recession, but they do not forgo treatment.

Where APICIL AM Sees the Rebound Coming From

Why MSCI World Health Care Lagged the MSCI World

The annual gap between the health-care index and the global benchmark was not caused by weak demand, according to APICIL AM. Instead, it came from market positioning: capital rotated to AI-related mega-caps, higher rates squeezed the valuations of longer-duration health-care assets, and regulatory noise added uncertainty. Post-Covid normalisation also made comparisons harder after a strong pandemic-era run.

Three Catalysts That Could Reverse the Underperformance

APICIL AM identifies three specific levers: interest-rate stabilisation, which would ease valuation pressure; artificial intelligence applied to healthcare, which could improve productivity against a projected global shortage of 10 million health professionals by 2030; and innovation in obesity, oncology and neurodegenerative diseases. On the latter, Samour-Cachian cites the GLP-1 revolution as potentially redrawing the curve of healthy longevity.

Pharma Is the Most Exposed, but Not the Only Winner

Samour-Cachian ranks pharmaceuticals and biotechnology highest on exposure, with diabetes, obesity and chronic diseases as key demand drivers. Behind them he places MedTech, diagnostics, home care, senior residences, health insurance, nutrition and digital health including telemedicine. The firm stresses that not all stocks will benefit equally; segment and company selection matter.

Where the Risks Sit

The main constraints are public-finance pressure and reimbursement systems, alongside rising US political and regulatory pressure on drug prices, particularly following Trump administration initiatives. APICIL AM also flags intrinsic risks in biotechnology: clinical failure, patent cycles, generic competition and reputational damage of the kind seen in dependency care and senior-home operators. Finally, the whole theme remains sensitive to interest rates — rising rates work against it.

What the Ageing Theme's Catalysts Mean for Equity Investors

For equity investors, the argument is less a simple buy call than a set of identifiable conditions. APICIL AM's analysis frames the theme as a long-term structural opportunity with specific triggers that would need to turn.

• Interest-rate stabilisation is the first catalyst named. Because rising rates were a key driver of the health-care sector's valuation pressure, any durable stabilisation or decline in rates would directly address one of the reasons for the 8.5% versus 13.2% annual return gap.
• US drug-pricing policy is the main regulatory swing factor. APICIL AM specifically points to pressure following Trump administration initiatives, meaning greater regulatory visibility would reduce a stated source of uncertainty.
• The silver economy's projected growth from $2.8 trillion in 2024 to $5.5 trillion in 2033 — about 8% per year — is the demand anchor, but APICIL AM cautions that pharma and biotech are the most exposed, followed by MedTech, diagnostics, home care, senior residences, health insurance, nutrition and digital health.
• The firm expects global pharma and biotech to grow about 6% per year over a five-to-ten-year horizon, and suggests health could regain appeal when investors seek growth beyond AI and large technology capitalisations.