Ventura’s Vinit Bolinjkar sees 7–8% Nifty upside by year-end; avoid legacy IT stocks

Ventura’s Nifty Call and the Three Triggers Behind It

India's Nifty 50 regained about 2.4 per cent in July after a five-month losing streak, leaving the benchmark roughly 6–7 per cent lower for 2026. Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura, sees room for another 7–8 per cent gain through the end of the year—if three conditions fall into place.

The triggers are specific: large private banks reversing net interest margin compression, spot crude normalising enough to relieve oil marketing companies, and autos extending their recent momentum. Bolinjkar argues these would reinforce the Q1 FY27 earnings picture, in which corporate earnings excluding OMCs grew about 17 per cent year-on-year, led by BFSI, metals, technology and autos.

His sector list is selective. Pharma, small finance and auto ancillaries are preferred, while consumer durables and construction EPC are treated with caution. On information technology, he wants investors to be selective rather than chase the July rally: Nifty IT gained 18.4 per cent in July, its best month since June 2020.

On the new Closing Auction Session, Bolinjkar said the early Sensex–Nifty divergence is a transition issue, not a credibility problem, with the gap narrowing as arbitrage capital steps in.

Sector Picks, IT Caution and the CAS Transition Behind the Outlook

Banks, crude and autos form the index case

The 7–8 per cent Nifty scenario is not an unconditional forecast. It depends on three visible earnings drags turning: private bank net interest margins stabilising or reversing, crude falling enough to stop oil marketing company losses, and auto demand holding up. The logic is that these are the specific places where margin pressure or input costs have been limiting index-level earnings. If they improve together, the ex-OMCs earnings growth already reported for Q1 FY27 gets a broader base.

The overweight theme is domestic demand and policy tailwinds

Bolinjkar's preferred areas cluster around demand that does not depend on a global cyclical rebound. Pharma benefits from double-digit healthcare inflation and the US Biosecure Act tailwind; defence and precision engineering benefit from government procurement and the China+1 diversification trend; small finance and MFI lending benefit from rising disbursements and falling non-performing assets; auto ancillaries and capital goods benefit from EV-linked orders and improving margins. The common thread is visible earnings momentum, not just a valuation story.

IT selectivity is aimed at legacy exposure

After Nifty IT's sharp July move, Bolinjkar frames the sector as a wait-and-watch opportunity. His distinction is between niche players—Coforge, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra—and larger legacy services firms, where disruption from AI adoption to traditional service models is still evolving. The stated risk is near-term margin pressure across the sector as AI adoption rises, with re-rating only for companies that turn AI-enabled solutions into faster growth.

Consumer durables and construction EPC get the clearest avoid signal

Consumer durables faces a specific regulatory event: compressor norms effective from March next year. The analyst argues the market has not fully differentiated between manufacturers with existing capacity and those that would need to absorb higher costs or lose competitive position. Construction EPC is more of a valuation and balance-sheet concern: B2G exposure can extend receivables, and execution risk makes current valuations harder to justify even if the long-term infrastructure opportunity remains intact.

The CAS gap is being treated as normal, not structural

The roughly 200-point day-one divergence between Sensex and Nifty after the Closing Auction Session went live is, in Bolinjkar's view, a pricing-mechanics adjustment rather than an infrastructure failure. Arbitrage capital has already begun narrowing the gap, and auction-based closes are familiar to foreign institutional investors. The regulatory test is whether SEBI and the exchanges fine-tune the auction window or eligibility criteria if normalisation stalls.

What the Outlook Means for Portfolio Positioning

• The 7–8 per cent Nifty target is conditional on large private bank NIMs, crude normalisation and auto momentum; if these do not show up in quarterly results and monthly sales data, the index case weakens.
• Do not treat Nifty IT's 18.4 per cent July move as a broad buy signal; the analyst's named constructive names are Coforge, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra, while larger legacy IT names carry AI-related margin risk.
• Consumer durables positions should account for compressor norms effective from March next year, with the key distinction being existing manufacturing capacity versus capacity still being built.
• Construction EPC positions should be checked against B2G receivables, execution risk and margin sustainability, not just the long-term infrastructure narrative.
• The interview's diversified reference allocation is 60–70 per cent equities, 15–20 per cent debt and 15–20 per cent gold, to be adjusted for individual risk appetite rather than used as a fixed template.
• The Closing Auction Session's roughly 200-point day-one Sensex–Nifty gap is narrowing; it becomes a structural concern only if the divergence persists and SEBI or the exchanges act on auction rules or eligibility criteria.