Caiado's Pardon Pledge at PSD Nomination

At the PSD national convention in São Paulo on Sunday, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado was formally nominated as the party's presidential candidate, with Gilberto Kassab as his running mate. In his acceptance speech and subsequent interviews, Caiado doubled down on his earlier promise to grant a full pardon to imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro on his first day in office, saying, "I want to pacify the country." Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced to 27 years for leading a criminal organization that attempted a coup and sought to subvert Brazil's democratic order.

Caiado framed the pardon as essential to ending the country's deep polarization. He argued that Brazilians should not be forced to choose between "those who are the most rejected figures in national politics," a clear reference to the incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the jailed Bolsonaro. His candidacy aims to capture the large share of the electorate dissatisfied with both extremes.

The former governor, who held the office twice in Goiás and served as a federal deputy and senator, shifted from the União Brasil party to the PSD earlier this year to secure the nomination. He overcame internal competition from Paraná governor Ratinho Júnior, who initially led and later dropped out, and Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite. Caiado's first presidential run in 1989 earned him less than 1% of the vote.

Calculus Behind the Offer to Pardon Bolsonaro

The Pardon Promise and Its Legal Hurdles

Caiado's pledge would require using the president's pardon prerogative, which is allowed under Brazilian law even after a final conviction. However, a pardon for crimes of such gravity — attempting to subvert the democratic order — would almost certainly face immediate challenges before the Supreme Court. The court's recent rulings and its role in the Bolsonaro case suggest that any such decree would be met with intense legal scrutiny, potentially delaying implementation or leading to its annulment. The promise, therefore, signals more about Caiado's political intentions than an assured legal outcome.

Caiado's Political Positioning

By promising to free Bolsonaro, Caiado aims to inherit a portion of the former president's loyal base without fully aligning himself with the PL or Bolsonaro's family. He notably criticized Flávio Bolsonaro during the convention, maintaining a careful distance. This dual message — outreach to Bolsonaro supporters via the pardon while attacking the Bolsonaro family's political style — allows Caiado to present himself as a unifying statesman who can heal the nation's divisions. His repeated references to high rejection rates for Lula and Bolsonaro are a direct pitch to the roughly half of voters who polls consistently show disapprove of both front-runners.

The Polarization Factor

Brazil's political landscape remains dominated by Lula's administration and the enduring brand of Bolsonarismo. Caiado's entrance as a self-styled third-way candidate taps into public fatigue with the permanent conflict between these poles. His argument that pacification requires pardoning Bolsonaro acknowledges that the former president remains a symbolic lightning rod for a large segment of society. Whether that argument resonates with the broader electorate — and whether voters truly see Caiado as an independent alternative — will determine if his campaign moves beyond the single-digit support he garnered in 1989.

What This Means for Brazil's Political Landscape

Caiado's pardon pledge and his framing as a centrist unifier introduce specific dynamics for the presidential race:

  • Campaign issue: The promise of an immediate pardon for Bolsonaro will remain a central campaign promise. Its legal feasibility will be debated, but it firmly anchors Caiado's claim to inherit a share of Bolsonaro's base.
  • Voter calculus: Caiado's appeal targets the segment of the electorate that rejects both Lula and Bolsonaro. Tracking polling for Caiado's rise among voters who express dissatisfaction with both major candidates will indicate whether his strategy is gaining traction.
  • Political risk for investors: A Caiado presidency that implements the pardon could reshape the opposition. While some may see a pardon as a step toward de-escalation, others may view it as reigniting legal and political turmoil. The election's outcome is scheduled for October 2026, giving markets an extended period to gauge viability.