Why VEB.RF Dismissed Chief Economist Andrei Klepach

Andrei Klepach, one of Russia’s best-known economists and until this weekend chief economist at the state development bank VEB.RF, has been dismissed after publicly contradicting the Kremlin’s confident line on the war in Ukraine. Russian media reported his removal on Sunday evening, and Klepach later confirmed the dismissal to Forbes without giving a reason.

At the centre of the affair are remarks first reported by The Moscow Times from a May lecture at a Moscow Exchange club. Klepach told the audience that Russia is deluding itself if it expects the Ukrainian economy to collapse. Ukraine, he said, has not collapsed and will not collapse. Meanwhile, he argued, Russia’s own costs are rising and the country is losing ground both in the technological and in the economic competition worldwide. He added that Russia was heading for a crisis.

The comments were explosive because VEB.RF and the wider state apparatus have consistently claimed that the economic situation is under control despite Western sanctions and the demands of a long attrition war. President Vladimir Putin, who ordered the February 2022 invasion, still insists Russia will win. Klepach’s assessment cut directly against that narrative.

According to independent outlet The Bell, VEB.RF chief Igor Shuvalov, a former deputy prime minister and Putin confidant, fired Klepach after a call from above from the Kremlin. Business daily Vedomosti cited its own VEB.RF sources saying Klepach had to leave because his personal assessments of Russia’s economic and political development could not be reconciled with the state corporation’s positions.

The Kremlin Tolerance Line Andrei Klepach Crossed

Andrei Klepach and the Price of Breaking the War Narrative

The reported sequence points to a direct link between Klepach’s public pessimism and his removal. The 67-year-old had worked at VEB.RF for twelve years and was widely respected. Alexander Prokopenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin said Klepach had never held back his views. What changed was not his independence, but the sensitivity of the message: an economist close to the state told an elite audience that victory in an attrition war was impossible.

Why VEB.RF Could Not Absorb the Dissent

VEB.RF is not an ordinary employer. It is Russia’s leading state development institution and is sanctioned by the West. Its chief economist’s public statements carry quasi-official weight. Vedomosti’s sourcing, that Klepach’s personal assessments were incompatible with the state corporation’s position, suggests the problem was less the data than the conclusion. A senior economist could likely have listed rising costs or sanctions pain; what he could not do was frame that as a losing path in public.

What His Warning Adds to the Evidence on Russia’s War Economy

Klepach’s reported forecast sits alongside visible pressure points: persistent inflation, rising war-driven state spending and technological isolation. His comment that Russia would lose the economic and technological competition is an interpretation, not a data release, but it comes from an insider with access to the state’s own analytical material. The fact that he saw a crisis ahead suggests at least some internal assessments are more pessimistic than official statements.

The reported involvement of a call from above remains unconfirmed by the Kremlin or VEB.RF. What is confirmed is the dismissal. The episode is best read as another sign that the space for technical, evidence-led debate inside Russian state institutions is narrowing in direct proportion to the war’s economic cost.

What This Signals for Businesses and Analysts Following Russia

For anyone using Russian economic information, the removal changes the reliability calculation.

  • Discount VEB.RF’s public economic commentary as a source of independent analysis. Vedomosti reported that Klepach had to go because his personal assessments could not be reconciled with the institution’s positions, meaning the chief economist’s office was expected to defend the state line, not challenge it.
  • Treat under-control claims from sanctioned state entities with greater skepticism. The remarks were described as explosive precisely because they contradicted the power apparatus’s core message that the situation remains manageable.
  • Expect less off-script commentary from other state-linked experts. The Bell’s reporting of a Kremlin call from above to Shuvalov, if accurate, sends a message that personnel consequences follow public pessimism about the war economy.