1.7 Million Lines Shed as Mexico's Mandatory Registration Purges Prepaid

Mexico's mobile market lost 1.7 million lines in the second quarter, bringing the total decline to 4.9 million since December 2025, as the regulator's mandatory registration process continues to purge inactive and unverified prepaid accounts. Data from The Competitive Intelligence Unit (CIU) shows that the country's mobile base fell to 157.1 million lines at the end of June, with the prepaid segment absorbing the brunt of the erosion—losing 6.3 million accesses in the first half alone.

The Comisión Reguladora de Telecomunicaciones (CRT) has been enforcing the line-linking requirement, and as of early August, over 69.6 million lines had been registered, roughly 22.8 million of which were postpaid. The clearance has hit operators across the board, including Telcel, AT&T, Telefónica, Bait and more than 170 mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), forcing a structural rebalancing from pre- toward postpaid subscriptions.

Yet the regulatory adjustment has not dented industry earnings. In Q2, mobile services generated 97.5 billion pesos, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, while revenues from services jumped 7.7%. Average revenue per user (ARPU) climbed 6.4% to 151.4 pesos monthly, its highest growth since the first quarter of 2021, underscoring a migration toward higher-value data plans and more engaged subscribers.

Why Mexican Telco Revenues Are Rising Despite User Losses

The Postpaid-Prepaid Rebalancing

The purge has sharply tilted the market toward postpaid. Prepaid's share of the mobile base fell from 83.3% to 81.7% in just six months, a shift that is both structural and largely irreversible, according to CIU. As low-activity prepaid SIMs are disconnected, the remaining pool consists of more active users, often those ready to convert to postpaid plans. AT&T México confirmed this dynamic: while its postpaid subscriber count grew 20.7% year-on-year to 7.5 million, prepaid users continued to decline—a drop the company had anticipated due to the registration mandate.

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Revenue Resilience: ARPU Hits a Near 5-Year High

The industry's ability to expand earnings while shedding millions of lines illustrates a pivot from volume to value. A 5.6% increase in data consumption and broader adoption of higher-capacity plans drove service revenue up 7.7%. With ARPU at 151.4 pesos, operators are seeing meaningful monetization gains as low-value prepaid users are replaced by postpaid subscribers who typically generate higher and more predictable revenue. This marks a return to ARPU growth not witnessed since early 2021.

What the Extension Means for Future Erosion

The CRT's decision to extend the registration deadline by six months is likely to moderate the pace of line losses in coming quarters. The number of registered lines has grown by nearly 5 million since the extension was announced, and the longer window allows operators and users to complete the process without triggering massive disconnections. Still, CIU's Esquivel warns that the loss in prepaid volume is permanent, meaning the market's composition has already changed for good.

Strategic Shifts for Operators as Prepaid Base Shrinks

  • Accelerate postpaid conversion. With prepaid share down 1.6 percentage points in H1, operators should design incentives—such as data rollover or bundled services—that encourage compliant prepaid users to upgrade, mirroring AT&T's 20.7% postpaid growth.
  • Capitalize on rising ARPU. The 6.4% quarterly ARPU jump to MXN 151.4 signals that consumers are willing to pay for robust data plans. Carriers should pivot marketing toward higher-tier postpaid offerings and 5G-ready packages that sustain this momentum.
  • Use the extended deadline for retention. The CRT's six-month reprieve gives operators time to run compliance campaigns that minimize involuntary disconnections, especially among low-income prepaid users who might otherwise be permanently lost.
  • Monitor MVNO concentration risk. As small virtual operators dependent on prepaid face sharp subscriber erosion, the big three could see further consolidation. Strategic partnerships or tailored wholesale models may help MVNOs survive the culling.

Risk & Opportunity Assessment

Commercial RiskMediumLoss of 4.9 million accesses in six months threatens prepaid revenues, but overall income is rising 5.3% as postpaid ARPU climbs, offsetting volume decline.
Competitive RiskMediumThe sharp prepaid contraction hits MVNOs hardest, potentially concentrating market power among Telcel, AT&T and Telefónica; smaller operators with limited postpaid portfolios are at greatest risk.
Regulatory RiskMediumThe CRT's mandatory registration continues to purge lines, with a further 6.3 million prepaid disconnections possible if compliance remains low; the extension to mid-2026 provides temporary relief but does not alter the long-run shrinkage.
Reputation RiskLowNo consumer backlash or service complaints are reported; the process is publicly known and operators have communicated expected prepaid declines.
Technology DisruptionLowThe shift from prepaid to postpaid is a pricing and regulatory change, not a fundamental technology disruption; underlying data consumption is growing steadily.
Commercial OpportunityHighOperators can lock in higher-ARPU postpaid users as prepaid users are forced to register; data consumption up 5.6% and ARPU at its highest growth in five years create room for premium plan adoption.