DAT July Index: Record Contract Rates as Falling Truckload Volumes Meet Tight Capacity

What DAT's July Index Shows for Truckload Volumes and Rates

DAT Freight & Analytics’ July Truckload Volume Index shows a freight market that is pulling back in load volumes but still repricing upward. The index, which tracks dry van, refrigerated and flatbed loads moved by truckload carriers, fell across all three segments in July. The van index dropped 11% from June to 252, reefer fell 5% to 181 and flatbed fell 12% to 291. Compared with a year earlier, van volumes were flat, reefer was down 13% and flatbed was down 4%.

DAT said the declines are largely in line with normal seasonal patterns after stronger June activity, though flatbed's 8% sequential drop was its largest in six years. The more striking part of the report was pricing. July contract rates for dry van rose $0.12 to $3.01 per mile, reefer rose $0.07 to $3.29 and flatbed rose $0.03 to $3.83, with DAT citing record sequential gains for van and reefer.

Spot rates also remained elevated. The national average spot van rate reached $3.01 per mile, spot reefer reached $3.42 and spot flatbed was $3.64. DAT analyst Dean Croke said van spot and contract rates reached parity in July even as volumes declined, which he described as a sign that available capacity is exerting greater influence on pricing than freight demand.

Why Tight Capacity Is Setting Prices Despite Falling Load Counts

The Capacity Exit Behind the Rate Strength

Dean Croke's central point is that this is not a demand-led freight boom. Load counts fell, yet prices rose, and spot rates in several segments sit at or above contract rates. That pattern, he said, has historically pointed to a tightening market in which the supply of trucks, not the volume of freight, is setting prices. The report links the imbalance to drivers and capacity leaving the market faster than expected because of regulatory pressure, alongside a tariff-related pull-forward that moved freight earlier in the season.

Tariff Pre-Shipping Has Given Way to a Cooler August

The July 4 period created an unusually high peak. Croke said shippers moved cargo early to beat tariffs, including a demand pull-forward into West Coast ports, while available trucks were scarce. That produced what he called a "white hot" market followed by a normal easing. By mid-August, he said, spot rates had cooled by roughly 24 to 25 cents, and the shipper panic seen before July 4 had largely disappeared.

What Equipment Type Tells You About the Next Moves

Croke expects dry van rates to hold or drift slightly lower, while reefer follows its normal seasonal cooldown into the fall, with pockets of strength in the Pacific Northwest and fall produce regions that are unlikely to move the national average. He views flatbed as the firmest segment with the most potential to keep climbing, even after its unusually sharp July volume decline.

What Shippers and Carriers Should Do With the July Signals

For shippers and carriers, the July data points to a two-sided negotiating environment: structurally higher costs from capacity losses, but a spot market that has cooled enough to give shippers some leverage.

• Shippers should plan freight budgets around contract rates repricing roughly 9% to 11% above last year, based on DAT's year-over-year contract comparison.
• Use the August spot cooldown of 24 to 25 cents as a negotiating window, but note DAT's expectation of a spot floor roughly 35% to 40% above year-ago levels.
• Prepare for a likely rate spike around the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance's Brake Safety Week 2026, which Croke said is guaranteed to push rates higher.
• Carriers should weigh locking in contract pricing while van and reefer contract rates are at record sequential gains and spot-contract parity persists.
• Give flatbed-specific attention: DAT says flatbed has the firmest near-term outlook and the most potential to keep climbing.