Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon Acquitted, Signals Broader Conservative Role Ahead of Elections

Why Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon's Acquittal Matters

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon was acquitted Friday by the Seoul High Court of charges that he violated South Korea's Political Funds Act. The court overturned a lower court conviction and a 10 million won ($7,500) fine, finding the testimony of political broker Myung Tae-kyun unreliable and other evidence insufficient. The charges stemmed from allegations that Oh arranged for a supporter to pay for opinion polls during his 2021 mayoral by-election campaign.

The ruling removes an immediate threat to Oh's career—a conviction could have forced him from office. A day after the acquittal, Oh pledged to help unite the conservative opposition, telling reporters at the National Assembly that the People Power Party can reassure the public by showing unity rather than division ahead of general elections. On Sunday, independent conservative lawmaker Han Dong-hoon endorsed cooperation, calling Oh highly reasonable and someone he should work with to secure conservative victories.

However, the case is not final. The special counsel team said it will appeal to the Supreme Court, leaving legal uncertainty. The acquittal also drew sharp criticism from Cho Kuk, head of the Rebuilding Korea Party's policy institute, who called the ruling a 'scripted drama' and accused the judiciary of political intervention. Oh, for his part, rejected calls to impeach the chief justice and urged respect for judicial independence.

Oh's political profile has been rising. A Gallup Korea favorability survey released before the ruling showed him at 30 percent, ahead of Han at 23 percent. While Oh has emphasized his responsibilities as mayor, his outreach to other conservatives and his public comments signal a broader political role as elections approach.

The Political Calculus Behind Oh's Acquittal and Outreach

Oh Se-hoon's Legal Victory and Political Opening

The Seoul High Court's acquittal of Oh Se-hoon removes a significant legal obstacle that could have ended his political career. By finding the key testimony unreliable and evidence insufficient, the court has effectively cleared the way for Oh to pursue a larger role in conservative politics. The ruling is not final—the special counsel's appeal to the Supreme Court means legal risk persists—but the immediate threat of removal from office has lifted. This timing is crucial as South Korea approaches general elections, giving Oh a platform to position himself as a unifying figure.

Han Dong-hoon's Endorsement and Conservative Unity

Han Dong-hoon's public endorsement of cooperation with Oh is a notable development. Han, an independent conservative lawmaker with his own base of support, described Oh as 'highly reasonable' and emphasized their shared goal of conservative victory. This signals a potential alliance that could broaden conservative appeal. The two have not always been aligned, but the acquittal appears to have created an opportunity for rapprochement. For context, conservative unity has often been fractured in South Korean politics, and such cooperation could reshape the opposition landscape ahead of elections.

Cho Kuk's Criticism and Liberal Counter-Narrative

Cho Kuk's sharp criticism of the ruling as a 'scripted drama' and his accusation of judicial political intervention highlight the polarized reaction. Cho also criticized the ruling Democratic Party for internal power struggles that squandered opportunities for judicial reform and impeachment of Chief Justice Jo Hee-de. This suggests that the acquittal is becoming a flashpoint in the broader debate over judicial independence and political influence. Oh's rejection of impeachment calls further positions him as a defender of judicial independence, contrasting with Cho's narrative.

Public Opinion and Presidential Ambitions

The Gallup Korea survey showing Oh at 30 percent favorability—ahead of Han at 23 percent—indicates that Oh has a strong personal brand among the figures polled. While the survey measured personal favorability, not presidential voting preferences, it underscores his potential as a presidential contender. Oh has downplayed presidential ambitions, focusing on his mayoral duties, but his actions—such as attending a housing forum with other conservative lawmakers—suggest he is building a broader political network. The coming months will test whether he can translate this into electoral support.

What to Watch as South Korea's Conservatives Seek Unity

The acquittal gives Oh Se-hoon a political opening, but the Supreme Court appeal means legal risk remains. For political observers and stakeholders, the key is to watch how Oh balances his mayoral duties with national ambitions and whether conservative unity materializes.

• Short term (0–6 months): Monitor the Supreme Court appeal timeline; any adverse ruling could reverse the acquittal and derail Oh's political momentum. Watch for formal alliance announcements between Oh and Han Dong-hoon, and track Oh's public appearances beyond Seoul mayoral duties.
• Medium term (6–24 months): Assess whether conservative unity holds through the general elections. Oh's favorability ratings (30% in the Gallup survey) will be a key indicator of his electoral appeal. Also watch how the Democratic Party responds to Cho Kuk's criticism and whether judicial reform becomes a campaign issue.
• Long term (2–5 years): If Oh's legal status is finalized and he remains politically active, he could emerge as a leading conservative presidential candidate. His ability to bridge different conservative factions will determine his viability. Track his policy initiatives as mayor, especially housing, as they may become national platform issues.

Metrics to watch: Supreme Court ruling date, Oh's favorability ratings in future polls, Han Dong-hoon's public statements, and any shifts in conservative party dynamics.