Marketers Bet on Streaming and Personalization for a Cautious 2026 Holiday Season

Holiday Marketing 2026: Optimistic Revenue Plans, Cautious Discounts

Brand and retail marketing teams are heading into the 2026 holiday season with more revenue confidence than they had a year ago, but with a deliberately restrained approach to discounting, according to new Digiday+ Research. In a survey of 90 brand and retail professionals, 76% said they expect holiday revenue to grow 1% to 31% or more versus 2025, and none projected a decline greater than 11%.

That optimism is not translating into deeper price cuts. Eighty-one percent of respondents said their 2026 holiday discounts will be about the same as last year's, suggesting growth is expected to come from smarter targeting, loyalty offers and better conversion rather than cheaper price tags. Executives interviewed for the report described a cautious consumer, rising operating costs and an election year in which inflation sentiment could shape spending.

The most visible tactical shift is in media buying. Planned use of CTV and streaming ads nearly doubles to 45% from 23% a year earlier, while traditional TV ad use jumps to 33% from 13%. At the same time, planned use of gift guides fell 19 percentage points and influencer hauls and unboxing videos fell 14 points, even though gift guides remain the best-performing holiday tactic historically. Owned e-commerce and physical stores also saw planned-use declines, despite ranking as the top two sales channels for the holidays.

Executives from A-Frame Brands, Mastercard and Ritual say the season will reward brands that offer value through bundling, gift-with-purchase, personalization and exclusive access for existing customers. The report points to a fourth quarter in which selective shoppers allocate spending carefully, and marketers compete for attention across a fragmented, non-linear path to purchase.

What the 2026 Strategy Shifts Mean for Brands and Retailers

The combination of rising revenue expectations and flat discounting is the most important signal in the survey. If 81% of brands and retailers are unwilling to go deeper on price, the expected growth has to come from winning a bigger share of a cautious shopper's wallet. Ritual chief growth officer Laura Brodie put it directly: holiday spending growth will probably be modest, so where spending gets allocated matters more than whether it grows.

The Streaming Swing Is Real, but It Favors Brands With Year-Round Data

CTV and streaming usage among surveyed marketers rises from 23% to 45%, and traditional TV from 13% to 33% — a 22- and 20-percentage-point jump respectively. That is a sharp reversal after CTV usage dipped the prior year. Brodie cautions that streaming is a decision for the whole year, not a channel to enter in November without ROI evidence. A-Frame Brands founder and CEO Ari Bloom adds that streaming and TV are effective conversion tools for reaching women over 30, a key holiday gift-buying audience.

Gift Guides Are Being Retooled for AI Search, Not Abandoned

Marketer usage of gift guides dropped 19 percentage points, yet 31% of respondents still rank them as the best-performing holiday tactic over time. Brodie argues that AI-powered search and LLM-generated answers increasingly rely on curated best-of lists, which makes optimized gift guides more relevant, not less. The likely reading is that brands are pulling back from gift guides as paid deliverables while investing in them as search-and-discovery content.

Owned Channels: Less Planned Spend, More Holiday Importance

Planned use of owned e-commerce fell from 69% to 46%, and owned physical stores from 84% to 60%, even though 67% of respondents say physical stores grow more important during the holidays and 49% say the same for e-commerce. Bloom thinks brands take owned channels for granted as wholesale and department-store options shrink. Mastercard's Susan Grossman offers a complementary explanation: the purchase journey is now so fragmented across creators, retailer sites, banking apps and stores that marketers are spending less on any single channel and more on connected experiences. Both interpretations point to the same conclusion — owned channels should be treated as anchors, not afterthoughts.

Smaller Brands Face the Tightest Constraints

Bloom warns that heavy discounting will be hard for smaller companies to absorb as transportation, fuel and other costs rise. Ritual's response is to lower acquisition costs by offering exclusivity to existing customers and partnering with like-minded wellness brands such as Osea on shared gift-with-purchase offers. For smaller brands without a large owned audience, the survey suggests bundling and cross-promotion are more realistic levers than expensive new customer acquisition during peak season.

How Marketers Should Act on This Year's Holiday Data

Implications for brand and retail marketing leaders planning the fourth quarter:

• Reallocate some holiday budget toward CTV and TV, but only if you have year-round performance data. CTV/streaming planned use doubled to 45% and TV rose to 33%, yet Ritual's Brodie warns that entering streaming just for the holidays is risky for smaller brands.
• Keep discount depth flat and shift the discount budget into bundles and gift-with-purchase. Eighty-one percent of respondents plan flat discounts; Bloom notes holiday shoppers often buy multiples, making trial sizes and add-on gifts a cheaper way to increase basket size.
• Treat gift guides as AI-search assets. Planned use fell 19 points, but 31% of marketers call gift guides their best historic performer, and Brodie says LLM-based search and AI overviews favor curated best-of lists.
• Protect owned channels even as media budgets grow. Planned use of owned e-commerce fell from 69% to 46% and physical stores from 84% to 60%, yet a majority say those channels gain importance during the holidays; Bloom warns against taking owned channels for granted as wholesale options shrink.
• Use first-party signals to personalize offers instead of blanket discounting. Mastercard's Grossman says value can come from personalized offers, exclusive access and well-timed incentives, letting brands nudge only the consumers who need it.